Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

This week on Fighting with Numbers, the UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan for a more compact data card headlined by Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. While the slate is smaller for us, the model still found spots worth watching — including a few potential value plays buried deeper on the lineup. We’re keeping it tight and focused this week: just the fights that matter, the stats that stand out, and the bets that make sense.
 
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:04 - Recap
01:46 - This Week: UFC Baku
03:12 - Ismail Naurdiev vs Jun Yong Park
09:03 - Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes
18:10 - Jamaal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr
 
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Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com

This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’m breaking down UFC Atlanta, headlined by Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley, with a strong co-main event featuring Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick. The model found a few surprise underdogs this week—and I’ll walk you through where the value lies and which favorites might be worth fading. As always: sharp analysis, data-backed predictions, and no fluff. Let’s bet smarter for UFC Atlanta.
 
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:00 - Vanessa Demopoulos vs Jamey-Lyn Horth
12:19 - Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos
23:34 - Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick
33:30 - Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley
 
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Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com

This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re zeroing in on the key matchups from UFC 316, headlined by the rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. I’ll break down what the stats say, where the value might be hiding, and why a few underdogs are worth a second look. No full-card filler—just analysis, model-backed predictions, and the fights with actual numbers. 
 
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Music by Elevate Audio:
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Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:10 - Ariane Lipski da Silva vs Cong Wang
13:51 - Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes Acosta
24:21 - Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland
27:00 - Julianna Peña vs Kayla Harrison
34:52 - Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley

This week on Fighting with Numbers, I break down the UFC Vegas 107 card with a data-driven look at the fights — including the main event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber. Get model predictions, finish probabilities, and betting insights to help you find value across the card. If you’re looking to bet smart, not emotional, this episode has you covered.
 
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Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
 
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:46 - Kurt Holobough vs Jordan Leavitt
07:52 - Allan Nascimento vs Jafel Filho
13:23 - Ketlen Vieira vs Macy Chiasson
20:27 - Matuesz Gamrot vs Ludovit Klein
27:38 - Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs Maycee Barber

In this first official episode of Fighting with Numbers, I break down 6 fights on the UFC Vegas 106 card — including the main event: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales. Using a stat-based model, I deliver predictions, finish probabilities, and betting value for these matchups.
Whether you’re chasing sharp angles or just want to see who the numbers favor, this episode gives you everything you need to bet smarter this weekend.
 
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:46 - Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro
08:33 - Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes
14:09 - Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises
20:50 - Julian Erosa vs Melky Costa
28:06 - Dustin Stoltzfus vs Black Ruziboev
36:15 - Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales
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Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com

Welcome to the introductory episode of Fighting with Numbers — a podcast for UFC fans and bettors who want more than just hype. In this intro, I’m breaking down what this show is all about: who I am, how my predictive model works, and what you can expect week to week. If you’re looking to make smarter, more analytical bets on UFC fights, you’re in the right place. Let’s get started.
 
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**Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

Join us for an exciting episode as we dive deep into the world of March Madness bracketology, college basketball betting, and the love of beer with our special guest, Greg “Hoops” Peterson.
Greg takes us on a fascinating journey through his personal history, sharing insights into his passion for bracketology and how he made his mark in the industry. From discussing the intricacies of sports betting in college basketball to unraveling the excitement of March Madness, Greg brings a wealth of knowledge and experience to the table.
But it’s not just about the games; Greg shares his love for beer and how it intertwines with his sports fandom. Get ready for an engaging conversation that combines the thrill of sports with the enjoyment of a cold brew, only on today’s episode!
 
Make sure to follow Greg on Twitter @GUnit_81
And follow me, Rob Moreno on all social media platforms @TheRobbeo 

Join host Rob Moreno in the latest episode of "A Better Mind Podcast" as he explores the dynamic worlds of UFC and tennis betting with guest Britton Hess. Discover the surprising parallels between these sports, Britton’s journey from television to sports gambling, and the pivotal role of daily fantasy sports in shaping his approach.
Gain valuable insights into effective sports betting strategies, including the importance of strength of schedule, live betting opportunities, and the pitfalls of high-risk parlays. Delve into the evolving UFC betting landscape and the crucial role in-fight betting plays in maximizing potential gains.
 
Follow Rob Moreno on social media @TheRobbeo for more updates and subscribe for enlightening conversations on "A Better Mind Podcast."
And follow Britton Hess on Twitter/X @BrittonHess. 
Plus check out his UFC weekly write ups at VSiN.com

Join me on the latest episode of 'A Bettor Mind,' where I sit down with Brian Ortega, a former Las Vegas concierge and the host of 'Concierge Confidential.' We delve into the intriguing world of Oscar betting, exploring Ortega's unique insights and strategies. Gain exclusive tips from a seasoned expert in the hospitality industry turned Oscars prognosticator.
 
Follow Brian Ortega on Twitter/X @BrianOrtegaLV, TikTok @KeysToVegas, and Instgram @Brian_Ortega26. 
 
And follow me on every social media @TheRobbeo!
You can find every episode of Concierge Confidential as well here: https://open.spotify.com/show/0RXK6YV8KlsKb7iAYYXCB8?si=5KWTUz_OSHGQ1CJAYjay_A
Make sure to rate, like, subscribe to ‘A Bettor Mind’!

Explore the dynamic world of sports betting with Jonathan Von Tobel in this episode. From his roots in Las Vegas to carving a path in sports media, join us for an insightful conversation on his unique journey, experiences, and the intersection of betting and sports culture.
 
Follow him on Twitter/X and Instagram @meJVT
And Follow me, Rob Moreno, on all social medias @TheRobbeo.