Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

It’s the final UFC event of the year, and we’re closing 2025 with a deep dive into UFC Vegas 112: Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape.
After a 6-4 week, the model sits at 176-101-15 (63.54%), locking in a profitable season no matter what happens on Saturday.
 
In this episode, we break down a few key fights with full data-driven analysis, matchup insights, betting angles, and projected outcomes.
Plus: a look back at the 2025 season, the evolution of the model, and what’s coming in 2026.
 
Follow for more:
🐦 Twitter: @TheRobbeo
📸 Instagram: @TheRobbeo
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📝 Substack: FightNumbers.substack.com
🎙️ Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the year.

The UFC closes out the PPV era with a monster card at UFC 323, live from T-Mobile Arena — and we’re breaking down all the numbers that matter. Two championship fights headline the final mega-event of 2025: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van for the flyweight belt, and Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 for the bantamweight championship. With only two events left in the year and a long six-week offseason ahead, this is a crucial week for bettors, pick’em players, and anyone chasing season-long edges.
 
This episode features full analytical breakdowns from El Modelo, as the system enters the week 170-97-13 (63.67%). We dig into a few fun fights to wager on — including striking profiles, xR% advantages, grappling efficiency, finishing upside, and all the hidden stats that shape fight outcomes.
 
Follow me everywhere:
Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo
Instagram: @TheRobbeo
Substack newsletter: FightNumbers.substack.com
Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike every Wednesday for more betting breakdowns.
Available everywhere you get your podcasts and on YouTube. 
 
One more card left after this — let’s finish the year strong.

UFC Qatar is here — and with only three events left in the year, it’s all about tightening the screws and finding the smartest possible spots. This week’s card is a morning start with a smaller batch of model predictions, but there are some sharp angles to attack, including live underdogs and stylistic matchups the numbers actually like.
 
In today’s episode, we break down three key fights — Hermansson vs Oralbai, Spivac vs Gaziev, and the main event between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker — with full statistical context, xR% comparisons, and model probabilities.
 
I’ll also talk briefly about my year-long pick’em contest grind, what the model saw last week, and how we’re approaching these final three events of the season.
 
Follow the show & stay connected:
• Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo
• Instagram & TikTok: @TheRobbeo
• Substack: http://FightNumbers.substack.com
• Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the week as well
 
If you enjoy the episode, don’t forget to rate, follow, and share — it really helps the podcast grow.
 
Let’s make the most of these early-morning edges. Enjoy UFC Qatar!

UFC 322 is one of the deepest cards of the entire year, with two massive title fights — Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev for the welterweight belt, and Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang for the women’s flyweight championship.
 
This week, the model is coming off a 5–4 event and now sits at 159-92-12 on the year. With only five UFC events left on the calendar, we’re digging into the smartest angles on a card absolutely loaded with elite matchups.
 
In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, I break down five key fights using a blend of hard data, matchup nuances, and model projections. Including live underdog opportunities, dangerous favorite spots, and where the numbers diverge from the odds.

The UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 110 — and Rob’s breaking down the numbers!
After a few rough weeks for the model (now at 63.56%), it’s time to bounce back with a stat-driven look at this post-PPV card headlined by Steve Garcia vs David Onama.
 
Tune in for the usual mix of betting talk, model insights, and fight-week storylines, all in one data-powered episode.
Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, and YouTube: @TheRobbeo, and check out the written breakdowns at FightNumbers.substack.com.
 
For more UFC coverage, catch Rob every week on VSiN’s “First Strike” alongside Dave Ross, breaking down odds, props, and best bets for fight night.
 
🎧 Listen. Learn. Bet smarter.VKFLGPrI0PVqjXUrjxdX

The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a massive double-title event at UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane, and Fighting With Numbers is breaking it all down!
 
Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) dives deep into the data and betting angles across five key matchups — from Umar Nurmagomedov’s bounce-back fight to the vacant strawweight title clash between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Plus, full analysis on Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane as the heavyweight division looks to crown its true king.
 
📊 Model Record: 4-5 last week | 64.35% overall on the year
 
🎧 Subscribe & Follow:
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Newsletter: FightNumbers.Substack.com
Also catch Rob every week on the First Strike Podcast from VSiN with Dave Ross
 
If you enjoy the episode, hit like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your favorite bet of the week — let’s keep building this community of data-driven fight nerds!

The Fighting With Numbers podcast is back for UFC Vancouver! And this week, the model digs into a stat-stacked card headlined by Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen.
 
Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) breaks down the key metrics, betting trends, and model grades for some featured matchups as we look for sharp angles and possible underdogs hiding in the data.
 
💥 Full breakdowns, xR% comparisons, and betting confidence grades.
 
📊 Read the full model report at FightNumbers.Substack.com
 
If you enjoy the episode, subscribe, rate, and drop a comment to support the show — and follow me on X and Instagram @TheRobbeo for fight-week updates.

We’re back in Brazil for UFC Rio, headlined by former lightweight champ Charles Oliveira taking on Mateusz Gamrot in a high-stakes main event. Rob Moreno breaks down all the key fights using the Fighting With Numbers model — including xR% stats, striking metrics, and potential value spots across the card.
 
The model sits at 65.58%, and while it’s a cautious week after UFC 320, there’s still plenty of data to uncover and underdogs worth watching.
 
💬 Tune in for a full stats-based breakdown, then check out the written analysis and official picks at FightNumbers.substack.com.
 
🎧 Catch Rob Moreno every Wednesday on First Strike with Dave Ross over on VSiN, and follow Rob on Twitter & Instagram @TheRobbeo for model updates, fight stats, and live betting notes.
 
👇 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment if you enjoy the show — it really helps the channel grow!

The light heavyweight title is back on the line as Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira run it back at UFC 320. Bobby Knuckles breaks down the rematch, plus deep dives into Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen, Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr, and more. Can the champ hold strong, or is another upset brewing? Tune in for stats, storylines, and betting angles from the model.
 
If you enjoy the show, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and drop a review — it helps the podcast grow! You can also follow Rob on Twitter and Instagram @TheRobbeo, read weekly fight previews on FightNumbers.substack.com, and catch him every Wednesday on the First Strike podcast over at VSiN.com

The UFC returns to Australia with UFC Perth, headlined by Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes. After a week off, we’re back in the lab breaking down some key fights: Including Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya, Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny, and the big main event.
 
The model is steady at 133-70-10 (65%), and this week it’s pointing toward some surprising angles. We’ll dig into the stats, talk xR%, striking numbers, and control rates — and highlight where the lines might not match the math.
 
Just data-driven fight talk and insights to get you ready for Saturday night in Perth.
 
Plus, don’t forget to subscribe to the Substack at FightNumbers.substack.com and catch me on First Strike with Dave Ross every Monday and Friday on the VSiN Podcast Network. 
 
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
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http://FightNumbers.substack.com
 
 
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com