Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

Noche UFC is here, headlined by Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva. I break down the key matchups, digs into the stats, and set the stage for a stacked night of fights. From Tatiana Suarez’s return, a clash of styles, every angle gets covered. Tune in for sharp insights, model talk, and a few storylines you won’t want to miss.
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Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:22 - Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos
06:11 - Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva
08:10 - Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus
10:40 - Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva
 
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After a one-week break, the UFC returns with a morning card from Paris, headlined by Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho in a matchup that could get violent fast. This week on Fighting With Numbers, we’re breaking down a slate full of finish potential, a couple of sharp underdog plays, and the fights worth targeting — and skipping — from a betting perspective. Let’s get back to work and see what the model likes in the City of Light.
 
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:47 - Shauna Bannon vs Sam Hughes
05:55 - Oumar Sy vs Brendson Ribeiro
08:48 - Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy
11:40 - Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho
 
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It’s UFC Shanghai, live from the other side of the world and kicking off at 3AM Eastern. The headliner? Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang in a fight that could launch Zhang into the spotlight. With the model rolling at 66% after last week’s 6-2 performance, we break down the stats, storylines, and betting angles across the card — value spots and parlay anchors. This is a card to approach cautiously, and we’ll walk you through the plays worth making before the sun comes up.
 
SHOW NOTES:
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:42 - Sumudaerji vs Kevin Borjas
04:17 - Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
06:57 - Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling
09:27 - Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang
 
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The middleweight belt is on the line at UFC 319 as Dricus Du Plessis faces the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev. We break down the styles, the stats, and where the edge really lies in this clash of chaos vs control. Model insights, betting angles, and why this fight could redefine the division.
 
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - Bryan Battle vs Nursulton Ruziboev
04:56 - Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose
08:00 - Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez
10:55 - Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page
14:02 - Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates
16:52 - Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev
 
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It’s not the prettiest card for betting — but that’s where value hides. In this episode, we break down UFC Vegas 109 from top to bottom, including the pressure-heavy main event between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Dolidze. With the model at 65% and fresh off a 6-1 week, we’re betting smart, spotting underdogs, and making the best out of a tricky slate. Stats, strategy, and sneaky edges. 
 
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko
06:10 - Joselyne Edwards vs Priscila Cachoeira
09:18 - Miles Johns vs Jean Matsumoto
10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park
 
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It’s a lighter slate for UFC Vegas 108, with Tatsuro Taira now facing Hyun Sung Park in a last-minute main event switch. While it might not be the most stacked card on paper, the model still found spots worth a closer look. This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’ll break down where the data finds value, what the main event shift means, and which fights are actually worth betting. Let’s nerd out.
 
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:23 - Rodolfo Vieira vs Tresean Gore
04:50 - Neil Magny vs Elizeu Zaleski
08:22 - Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle
10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park
 
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We’re running the numbers for UFC Abu Dhabi, headlined by Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder. Every fight is broken down by the stats, with model scores, xR percentages, and key striking and grappling data to find the best betting angles.
 
The model is still hitting at 65% overall accuracy, let's keep it rolling this week. 
 
SHOW NOTES:
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:46 - Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci
04:45 - Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov
08:15 - Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder
 
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This week on Fighting with Numbers, it’s UFC 318 — and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for the third time, this one for the BMF Title in what’s also Poirier’s retirement fight. The model’s dialed in on this matchup, plus some sneaky value elsewhere on the card. Let’s break down the trilogy, the title, and where the numbers are pointing for UFC 318.
 
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:10 - Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen
05:11 - Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira
09:36 - Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov
16:10 - Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier
 
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After a week off, we’re back in action for UFC Nashville, headlined by a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and rising prospect Tallison Teixeira. This week on Fighting with Numbers, the model gets back to work breaking down where the data points us — including a few key betting spots beyond the main event. It’s good to be back. Let’s get into the numbers and find the angles worth playing.
 
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:00 - Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura
05:04 - Chris Curtis vs Max Griffin
07:37 - Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira
09:50 - Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia
12:15 - Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim
 
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It’s a big one. This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re diving into the double-title card at UFC 317. Flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja defends against Kai Kara-France, and the vacant lightweight strap is on the line between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. The model’s fired up for this one — with value showing in both title fights and a few sleeper matchups deeper on the card. Stats, edges, and smart spots only — let’s break down UFC 317 the right way.
 
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:16 - Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshev
10:53 - Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van
21:29 - Beniel Dariush vs Renato Moicano
29:20 - Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France
36:52 - Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira
 
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